GOP May Need Support of Nearly Half of Latino Voters to Win Presidency in 2016
In 2016, the GOP will have to work harder than ever before to seize the enough of the Latino vote to win the presidency, requiring the support of nearly half the Latino vote, according to new estimates. The hard math may explain why some Republican candidates aren’t even trying.
Long Term Demographic Trends
The background to this can be seen in “An Awakened Giant: The Hispanic Electorate is Likely to Double by 2030”, a 2012 report issued by Pew Hispanic Research, which predicted that the U.S. Latinos would cast the ballots that would win the presidency for some fortunate candidate by that year.
With the median age of Latinos being significantly lower than the general public and the population on a decisive rise, Pew argued, the Latino community represented a great share of the age-eligible electorates already, and would continued to into the year 2030.
Near Term Effects
But while the U.S. is 15 years from 2030, the number ofHispanic voters eligible to vote in the next election likely already exceeds 13 million. According to Pew, that number was at 11.2 million just three years ago.
Mitt Romney, former republican presidential candidate, won the support of 23 percent of Latino voters during 2012’s presidential election. However, during the upcoming 2016 election, the Republican candidate will need twice as much support if he intends to take up residency at the White House.
Latinos’ rapid national growth has made them thegrowth segment of the U.S. electorate. But in the last six elections, only one Republican presidential candidate has won the favor of Latino voters.
With more than a dozen Republican candidates seeking presidency in the upcoming election, it’s important to deduce exactly many how Latino votes Republican leaders might need in order to earn the presidency. Recently, Latino Decisions, a Latino political opinion research firm, prepared new analysis based on reports and polls to predict where Latino and non-Latinos votes will fall. The analysis was conducted for America’s Voice, a group that advocates for immigration reform.
According to the polling firm, the Republican presidential candidate will need the support of between 42 and 47 percent of Latino voters to win the presidency, which slightly surpasses the longstanding assumption that Republican candidates needed just 40 percent of Latino votes.
Although Latinos’ share of the electorate has grown, their support of the GOP has remained generally unchanged, with an exception of Latinos offering George W. Bush 39 percent of their interest, enabling his win in 2004.